When George Soros makes an economic prediction, investors are sure to listen. The reason why is he has had more than four decades worth of success, and his financial empire now nets at about $27 billion. However, is his latest warning of a repeat of the 2008 market crash valid?
Currently, other economic advisors are not declaring a possible recession. However, some of them say that any trigger such as a new war or declining United States manufacturing ISM indicators could result in one. In Soro’s defense, Bloomberg has outlined many of the financial problems caused by a devaluation of the yuan currency.
The price of the yuan has dropped, and Soros attributes this as being one of the primary reasons for Chinese trade shut-downs. Already, this is part of what pushed the Down Jones Industrial Average down by more than 390 points from close on Wednesday, January 6, 2015 to the end of the following day (January 7). Many of the Chinese and Asian markets also have experienced the effect of recent trading troubles. Declining eastern stock prices is one evidence of financial problems.
On the other hand, new manufacturing orders are up in Germany, according to The Economist. Likewise, service industry ISM in the United States is at a solid 55.3 as of December 2015. The service sector also shows signs of job growth. Therefore, it might take more to decide how much at risk of a recession the world is right now. More might just need to happen yet for economists to believe George Soros is right.
The Chinese government is making moves to restore the yuan’s convertibility by 2020. However, the fact that the world relies on China as the second-largest economic power is a concern. If this is one of the country who normally is making it, what kind of hope does it leave for other countries not doing as well financially?
Certain other events could possibly trigger a recession. For instance, a recent Saudi-Iran conflict concerning the Yemen bombing incident could compound into a full-on war. Additionally, other Asian countries might feel the pressure to lower their currency prices to stay competitive.
George Soros warns of a recession much like what happened in 2008. However, this economic fallout might possibly be isolated in certain locations and not throughout the entire globe. In any case, many investors are keeping on watch and using caution per Soro’s advice.